Eyal and Yali launched Prop GPT mid-NFL season and immediately leaned on influencer marketing to drive downloads. They spent a few thousand dollars on influencer sponsorships, which generated roughly 20 downloads per day. Of those, 5–10 per day converted to free trials, giving them a strong download-to-trial rate early on. This gave them their first paying users and got them to ~$1,000–$2,000 MRR relatively quickly. However, despite healthy download and trial numbers, conversion from trial to paid was extremely low (only ~13%). They diagnosed this through analytics tools (PostHog) and user behavior data: on high-traffic moments like the Super Bowl, they saw spikes in trial starts but almost zero retention after trial. This was the signal that their first-user playbook was working, but the product itself was failing to deliver on its promise.
Prop GPT
Sports betting analytics app using ML to surface high-confidence picks daily
7 moves, in order
- Pre launch / BuildApp store launch
Spent 5 months building the first version of Prop GPT in React Native, launching mid-NFL season to catch peak sports betting demand.
App live on App Store; initial download activity began - Version 1 – Growth AttemptInfluencer marketing
Spent a few thousand dollars on influencer sponsorships to drive app downloads. Selected creators whose audiences overlapped with sports bettors.
~20 downloads/day; 5–10 trial starts/day; 45% download-to-trial rateMRR $2.0k - Version 1 – DiagnosisProduct analytics
Used PostHog to track in-app behavior and identified that 45% of users converted to trial but only 13% converted to paid. Spotted Super Bowl spike in trial starts with near-zero retention after — confirming a product problem, not a distribution problem.
Identified core UX failure: app required too much manual effort from users who just wanted pre-analyzed picksMRR $2.0k - Rebuild – 4 Months Off MarketProduct rebuild
Shut down all marketing spend for 4 months and fully rebuilt the app from scratch. Redesigned the core experience so users are served pre-analyzed picks directly rather than having to manually evaluate their own bets.
New version launched April 15th at $1,700 MRR (~$15/day revenue)MRR $1.7k - Version 2 – RelaunchInfluencer marketing
Relaunched marketing aggressively to coincide with the NBA playoffs, timing the spend to peak sports betting demand with the rebuilt product.
Trial-to-paid conversion jumped to over 50%; MRR began rapid ascent - Version 2 – Viral SpikeOrganic social video
Continued publishing influencer/social media videos consistently (~70 videos total). The 70th video went viral with 600,000 views, driving a massive single-event revenue spike.
ARR jumped from ~$8K to ~$38K in roughly 3 days; 2,000 downloads in a single day at peakMRR $40k - Steady State / ScalingInfluencer marketing
Maintained ~$10,000/month in ongoing influencer marketing spend. Tracked revenue-per-download ($3.30) and LTV metrics via RevenueCat and Superwall to optimize spend efficiency.
$30,000 MRR sustained; 40,000+ total downloads; 3,000+ paying customers; 48% conversion to trial; ~50% profit marginsMRR $30k Users 3.0k users
Eyal had prior experience working with successful app founders and had already observed the influencer marketing playbook in action before building Prop GPT. This gave them a ready-made distribution channel from day one — most first-time founders spend months figuring out what they already knew.
influencer_marketing
The original version of the app required users to manually input their bets and check them against the model — users wanted to simply be given the best picks directly. This UX mismatch caused trial-to-paid conversion to stagnate at ~13%, capping MRR at $1,000–$2,000 despite healthy download volumes. All marketing was shut down during the 4-month rebuild because pouring spend into a broken product was pointless.